Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 13.330101 15.233190 17.274300 19.621853 22.242727 25.074060 28.359468
2025-09-28 10.024893 12.513497 15.386300 18.930179 23.165385 28.044575 34.069912
2025-10-05 8.815137 11.634928 15.043382 19.433318 24.900370 31.444765 39.827490
2025-10-12 7.836305 10.879712 14.714029 19.845477 26.471632 34.672116 45.511868
2025-10-19 6.872625 9.987636 14.060634 19.700072 27.217377 36.793989 49.800744
2025-10-26 6.066435 9.200917 13.443332 19.504190 27.820912 38.696954 53.832500
2025-11-02 5.467900 8.626415 13.038800 19.524393 28.659430 40.888425 58.278527
2025-11-09 5.001436 8.186872 12.769855 19.685435 29.661913 43.304581 63.087637
2025-11-16 4.533292 7.693205 12.371656 19.612627 30.300847 45.216089 67.248351
2025-11-23 4.098315 7.204623 11.933632 19.434141 30.751388 46.852142 71.055931
2025-11-30 3.790657 6.885848 11.720944 19.564017 31.637790 49.118188 75.814846
2025-12-07 3.604242 6.745697 11.769078 20.084235 33.116626 52.281474 81.964105
2025-12-14 3.269646 6.331516 11.359236 19.873795 33.490011 53.864683 85.916360
2025-12-21 2.844281 5.718368 10.576855 19.011672 32.796838 53.813252 87.429400
2025-12-28 2.724394 5.637015 10.670861 19.575952 34.369758 57.241508 94.282027
2026-01-04 2.584715 5.505255 10.666237 19.969189 35.677112 60.300217 100.667410
2026-01-11 2.372768 5.216025 10.363082 19.830634 36.097576 61.976272 104.957154
2026-01-18 2.172165 4.928467 10.039439 19.630917 36.396084 63.456152 108.973310
2026-01-25 2.021031 4.724126 9.850527 19.652200 37.059373 65.533179 113.990359
2026-02-01 1.901142 4.571701 9.745634 19.813813 37.963039 68.023189 119.738788
2026-02-08 1.762082 4.365073 9.521591 19.740714 38.447905 69.831962 124.429543
2026-02-15 1.622709 4.143420 9.250970 19.561169 38.729128 71.300990 128.596891
2026-02-22 1.528924 4.012820 9.149558 19.691800 39.564209 73.721184 134.400514